Picks and Parlays MLB - The 2020 Season's Top Bet Plays. | Betting Hits July 13, 2021

 

Expert Picks and Parlays MLB - This upcoming 2020 season we have top odds and arbitrage opportunities using key tools and statistics to win you more money.

Surprisingly at DraftKings sportsbook while most money is flowing on the Yankees to win, there has been a lot of money flowing on the Mets as well according to the recently released numbers. Could be that they are based in NJ which is home to the Mets hmm?

“DraftKings Sportsbook has been taking bets on World Series odds over the offseason, and we have an overwhelming betting favorite. 62 percent of the handle and 49 percent of the total bets at DK have been on the New York Yankees. The New York Mets follow them at six percent and four percent, respectively. The defending World Series champion Washington Nationals are next, followed by the runner-up Houston Astros.

The Yankees topping the betting handle is not entirely surprising. They are the betting favorite, and their preseason wins total odds (101.5) are highest as well. The Mets mixed in is not shocking with so much of DraftKings’ gambling business based in New Jersey.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are next in win total behind the Yankees, having been boosted from 97.5 to 100.5 following the Mookie Betts trade. The Dodgers have the second-best World Series odds behind the Yankees, and it would not be surprising to see their handle percentage increase between now and Opening Day thanks to the Betts trade.” via DraftKings

How The Houston Astros Cheating Scandal has affected their winning odds

The biggest story of the offseason was the Houston Astros cheating scandal that ensnared the club who were just coming back from being 2019 world series runner ups and the odds on favorites at the time to win the 2020 world series.

To summarize, After a thorough investigation, MLB determined that during their world series run in 2017 and in 2018, the Astros had used Cameras both at home and away to steal and decipher opposing pitchers signals.

As a result, the Astros were fined $5 million and forfeited their first- and second-round picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts. General manager Jeff Luhnow and field manager A. J. Hinch were suspended for the entire 2020 season for failing to prevent the rules violations. No players were punished because they had been given immunity by MLB in exchange for their cooperation.

The Astros subsequently fired both Luhnow and Hinch on the day their suspensions were announced. MLB’s investigation also determined that Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora helped mastermind the Astros’ sign-stealing while serving as Hinch’s bench coach in 2017.

Cora mutually parted ways with Boston the following day. Carlos Beltrán, who had been hired to manage the New York Mets in November 2019 and was the only player from 2017 who was specifically named in the report, also mutually parted ways with the Mets in the same week.

The sanctions were the most severe that MLB has ever issued against a member club and are among the most severe sanctions for in-game misconduct in baseball history. via Wikipedia.

The Fallout

With MLB eyes squarely on them, this upcoming, season and all this turmoil currently dropped them from 1st to 5th in the pecking order for the 2020 world series win which is a significant development for them and the league because the fallout also affected both the Red Sox odds as well as the New York Mets Odds.

2. Money Line

The second most popular MLB betting strategy is to bet the money line. Baseball has the most games played in a season with 162 so there are always some key factors to consider when betting the money line.

Rotations are very important with pitching and hitting. Pitchers will often be rotated with 4-5 day rests, some are on pitch counts. The following are stats to keep an eye on when betting the money line for pitchers.

• IP (Innings Pitched)
• ERA (Earned Run Average)
• WHIP (Walks Plus Hits per Innings Pitched),
• WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player).
• SO (Strikeouts)

For the offense, you need to consider the following stats for batters.

• PA (Plate Appearances)
• AB (at-bat appearances)
• WOBA (weighted On-Base Average)
• OBP (On-Base Percentage)
• ISO (Isolated Power)
• SLG (Slugging Percentage)
• OPS (On-base percentage + Slugging)

3. Run Line betting in MLB

Run line betting is a sophisticated betting strategy but has value and profitability in baseball betting. A bettor will use this strategy to see if there is value in the market by converting the Run Line odds into a percentage chance of winning.

Click here for our free Run Line MLB betting tool where we do all the calculations for you.

Run Line MLB Picks Explainer Video

4. Totals Betting

Totals betting in the MLB Covers wagers on the number of runs, home runs, total points scored and other points related stats and can be a very lucrative bet when teams stats are injected into the equation.

For the most part, MLB games do not go over 15 points so including watching both teams offenses and defenses other factors come into play depending on the lineups and rotations.

5. Over / Unders

Totals betting comes with the wrinkle of over-under which basically wagers on how many points will be scored and if they will surpass those points in the over or not reach those points in the under.

6. Player Props MLB Picks

Player propositions have become very popular in betting circles since they concentrate on just a single players performance, they cover pitchers as well as batters for example how many runs a player will drive in or how many strikeouts a pitcher will have in a game, it is a very enticing bet indeed.

7. MLB Picks today

MLP Picks are very lucrative in MLB betting tips since you can use a smaller investment and win a lot because of their nature. Combining multiple factors to create bigger odds is the nature of parlays and in baseball, it is no different.

With the high number of games played in baseball, a parlay bet can run for several days so can conceivably parlay several games into a single bet that would be a big money winner when hit.

8. Picks and Parlays MLB Playoffs and world series

After 162 games a regular season which runs from April to September, the playoffs start in October and after surviving the grueling season, we come to the playoffs and this is a completely different animal because at this point it is win or go home.

Pitching rotations are shortened and other strategies then come into play more than ever. For a betting expert, this can be quite exciting since by then there is a ton of data to help them make better decisions and win their betting strategies.

9. Free Picks and Parlays MLB

Yes, our tips are completely free, they are accurate and data-driven with experts who understand the game. Since they are free, you can follow with us for a while before deciding to dive in and use them, in fact, we recommend you to do that and you will be impressed.

10. Power rankings MLB Picks

This falls in the category of external factors when it comes to baseball betting. So many media houses track teams and player rankings on a weekly basis, the top one being ESPN and for an MLB betting expert like us.

You have to keep an eye on this when placing bets since it can give one an insight on hot streaks and other factors that are basically secondary factors. Other factors could be the weather for example.

Rain delays could influence how a game is played or if there is a doubleheader. These might not be necessarily key elements but they might help one see the complete picture of a game before placing their bet.

As the oldest of the major three sports, baseball has a vast and unique history that can’t be matched by football and basketball. While baseball isn’t as popular among sports bettors as football or basketball, the sport has been actively wagered on since the early 20th century.

In the first half of the 20th century, football and basketball were both in developmental stages. On the other hand, baseball was establishing itself as America’s national pastime.

With big stars, like Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth, leading the way, the sport took off in the 1920′s. Ironically, the decade began with a betting scandal tied to the biggest event in baseball.

After the 1920 season, the baseball world was shocked by the “Black Sox” scandal. A year after the fact, it was learned that New York gangster Arnold Rothstein had paid off eight Chicago White Sox players to fix the 1919 World Series. In the series, the White Sox were a heavy favorite over the Cincinnati Reds. With the fix in place.

Rothstein was able to win big by betting on the underdog Reds to win the series (Cincinnati won the series five games to three). In the fallout, the eight White Sox players were banned for life from Major League Baseball prior to the 1921 season.

The success of Babe Ruth and the New York Yankees right after this scandal saved baseball from getting swept up in the “Black Sox” controversy. Seven decades later, baseball was hit by another betting scandal that shocked the sport.

After a legendary playing career, all-time hits leader Pete Rose became the full-time manager of the Cincinnati Reds prior to the 1987 season (Rose was a player-manager for the club from 1984-86).

During the Reds spring training camp in 1989, reports began to circulate that Major League Baseball was actively investigating Rose for betting on baseball.

In late August, he was banned for life from Major League Baseball. While it wasn’t officially for betting on baseball, the evidence that Rose did so was overwhelming.

After denying that he bet on baseball when the ban was handed down in 1989, Rose admitted to betting on games (including ones involving the Reds) over a decade later.

While these betting scandals have rocked the baseball establishment, wagering on baseball is enjoyed by many serious and novice sports bettors every spring and summer.

Baseball Betting Basics

Baseball betting is quite different from football and basketball wagering. There are no point spreads in baseball wagering. Because there are only eight or nine runs scored in a typical Major League Baseball game, there isn’t really enough scoring in the sport to justify a point spread. Therefore, the most common baseball wager is a money line or straight bet.

In these type of wagers, the bettor simply wagers on which team will score the most runs in a baseball game without any regards to the margin of victory. Here’s what a typical money line might look like for a Major League Baseball game:

Red Sox (+140) Yankees (-160)

To some novice bettors, these numbers can seem confusing. The easiest way to understand these figures is to use $100 as a base number/amount for each price. In this example, New York is the favorite as the team with the minus figure.

To win $100 on a Yankees wager, the bettor would need to wager $160.

As the underdog, Boston has a plus price. With a plus price, the bettor can simply wager $100 to win $140 on the Red Sox. In these money line bets, there is no vigorish or juice.

However, the bookmaker does establish a kind of fee for the money line odds. The example listed above is known as a 20-cent line.

There is a numerical difference of 20 in the odds between the Red Sox and Yankees. Novice bettors sometimes are confused by this difference.

Because Boston isn’t at a price of +160, the bookmaker is able to keep a little more of the handle on these types of bets.

The closest thing that baseball has to a point spread wager is a run line bet. In these type of bets, the favored team is listed at -1.5 runs.

So, the favored club in a run line bet must win by two runs or more. The underdog team is installed at +1.5 runs. The non-favorite must win the game or lose by just a single run for the bettor to win his run line wager on the underdog.

A money line figure is also attached to these odds and is determined by using the straight line on the game as a foundation to come up with the appropriate price to be attached to the plus or minus 1.5 figure.

Total or over/under bets in baseball work in the same general format as total wagers in football and basketball.

Another unique aspect of baseball wagering involves the starting pitchers. While a football or basketball squad will field the same basic squad for every game, a baseball team won’t necessarily be at the same general level from game to game.

This is due to the starting pitching that is a part of the game. MLB clubs will go with a rotation of five starting pitchers. These hurlers will pitch about every five days.

The specific starting pitcher on a given day for a given team can have a huge impact on the line. So, the starting pitchers for each team are listed next to each team in the betting odds rundown.